About 50 million people could face acute hunger by the end of next year as the El Niño weather phenomenon, which is changing rainfall patterns around the world, intensifies.
The UN World Food Program (WFP) says that even if El Niño turns out to be less intense than some models predict, it will still increase the number of people currently facing acute food insecurity by more than a fifth – to 225 million people in 45 countries.
The analysis says Central and South America, the Caribbean and southern Africa are likely to be hit hardest. South and Southeast Asia are likely to see less rainfall than usual, causing significant problems for agriculture and farmers.
This year’s El Niño, a climate pattern that develops every few years in the Pacific Ocean, is set to be the strongest in at least 70 years. Global warming is also playing a role. Together, they could make this year the hottest on record (though 2027 is more likely to be the hottest).
During the 2015-16 El Niño, an estimated 60-100 million people were affected by acute food insecurity. But the UN World Food Program is now implementing preventive measures that it hopes will reduce the impact of extreme weather. It has budgeted at least $80 million for this.