For the first time in 50 years, the United States faced a situation where the number of emigrants exceeded the number of people entering the country. According to new estimates by Brookings Institution economists Wendy Edelberg, Tara Watson, and Stan Weuger, net migration in 2025 ranged from minus 10,000 to minus 295,000 people.
This indicator was the result of the tough policies of the Donald Trump administration, which included the near-total closure of the border with Mexico, the introduction of new visa fees, and the cancellation of humanitarian programs. Researchers note that the main reason for the decline is precisely the artificial inhibition of new arrivals, and not just deportations, the number of which in 2025 amounted to about 300,000 people – half the number claimed by the White House.
The economic consequences of this reversal are already being felt across the country. Experts predict that the combined decline in consumer spending in 2025 and 2026 will range from $60 billion to $110 billion. Job creation is already slowing sharply, with last year being the second-worst period for employment growth since the Great Recession.
Economists, however, do not expect a significant impact on inflation, as businesses will experience a simultaneous decline in both labor supply and demand for goods and services.
The situation is complicated by conflicting data. While the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) expected a net migration of 400,000 people, the Trump administration and conservative think tanks insist on even greater outflows.